Weekly outlook week 9 2012

After last weeks fail to put up a weekly outlook I am resuming this week again. It just a matter of getting into the routine I suppose of putting up the things I do anyway in the blog.


In this week blog:

• EURUSD
• AUDJPY
• USDJPY
• Gold
• Silver
• WTI

Let start with the EUR/USD.


EURUSD


Two weeks ago I told you that because of the divergence I was bullish EURUSD and that panned out well. This week EUR/USD has to make a decision whether it was 'just' a correction or whether it will be a reversal altogether.

EURUSD - Weekly

As you can see we are at a cross roads on the weekly chart. The 50% retracement from the last down move has been reached, we have crossed the EMA and the EMA has gone flat.


This 50% fib by the way coincides roughly with the 38.2% retracement of the complete move from the 1.50000 levels.


This means that at this moment I am rather neutral on EURUSD. For me to become bullish again we have to break the 61.8% fib level and the EMA should turn up.


When on the other hand the 50% fib is holding and EMA will go down I will change to become a bear.


But what is the daily chart telling us?

EURUSD - Daily

On the daily chart we see a MACD that has just crossed the zero line and is bullish, the stochastics is in overbought area but has not crossed back yet, still this is bearish.


Furthermore EURUSD is traiding near the inner envelope of the EMA which also indicates that sentiment may start to shift downwards. The EMA itself is pointing up however indicating an upwards trend.


All in all it is rather mixed slightly biased towards bearish, as price will always try to get back to the EMA.


From this I might want to go short later this week, when both stochastics and the MACD turn around and there is still room between price and EMA, becuase when MACD turns around we will have a divergence set-up.


AUDJPY


I figure that most of the move is over reaching a major resistance at 87.20. Also the MACD has reached a level where I would be very hesitant to open new positions.


When AUDJPY is able to break through the 87.20 level  the next big resistance is at 89.60.

AUDJPY - Weekly

USDJPY


The USDJPY awoke from hibernation and took off. Gained 350 pips in two weeks where it has been ranging in a 150 pip band for nearly 14 weeks.




Without hesitation it took out the resistance at 80.35 and stopped short of the 81.30 - 81.80 resistance zone.

USDJPY - Weekly

Looking at MACD I can imagine that the thrust is exhausting and USDJPY  is taking a breath and move on to the 83.00 levels where the 38.2% fib level from the down move starting from May 2010 lies.




When this pair is not able to break through 81.30 right away it might fall back to 80.35.




As I probably will not trade this pair, you might want to look for some counter trend trades on the lower time frames <1h as I can see this pair falling back a little the coming week.


Gold


It seems as if gold has reestablished its uptrend as it broke through the trend line that was formed off the peak of 1900 in September last year.




Also the EMA turned up again and MACD is confirming it.

Gold - weekly

There is resistance at 1800, as there normally is at such round numbers and when gold is able to tackle this I can see it move up and challenge the all time high of $1912 per troy ounce.

Gold - daily

The daily chart looks a bit exhausted, the stochastics being in the overbought region and price at the boundary of the inner channel. MACD seems not be able to take off.


So although in an uptrend there might be some good counter trend possibilities on the lower time frames <1h this week.




Silver


Where as gold managed to break the trend line and so technically ended the correction, didn't silver manage to break through. It touch the downwards trend line but it held.

Silver - weekly

This is indeed very interesting as it can bring a nice trading opportunity in silver. When gold is continuing its uptrend, I cannot see silver staying at the same levels or below as it is trading right now.


As soon as silver leaves the down trend, the next resistance will be at 38 and 41. On the down side the support levels are 34 and 31.




WTI - CLJ2


The MACD of crude nicely rejected the 0-line of the MACD as talked about in then last weekly update two weeks ago.


When that happened it was a strong bullish signal and indeed it was. Crude is now heading to its recent high at 114 which also happens to be the 1.382 fib extension.

WTI - CLJ2 - Weekly

This 1.382 fib is so important because the correction in December last went to the 38.2 fib level. When price retraces to that level than more often than not a trend continuation will go to the 1.382 level.


Personally I think we will see a crude go straight to the 114 and then take a rest to decide to go on to the all time high at 140.


When it will fall back from this levels the next support is at the 108.50 and 103.30 levels.