So after a pause of so many years I am going to blog again. You can make bets how long I will keep it up this time. :)
On Sundays I will start-off with the instruments I follow and what trades I am looking for. Whenever applicable I will also comment on any closed trades that week.
My system boils down to looking at the weekly charts for direction and then find the actual entries on the daily charts.
I follow the following instruments:
My biases for week 7:
USDJPY (Neutral/Bullish)
Posted a nice bull candle last week, making the MACD to do a zero rejection. Technically the EMA also started to point up, but it is not visible by the naked eye really.
So I am getting bullish on the pair, but not fully convinced yet.
AUDJPY (Bullish)
We are in a nice uptrend, shown by both a rising EMA and MACD. Because the trend is well established already I would like to see it come back to the EMA before actively looking for trades.
EURUSD (Bullish)
The EURUSD actually has the most interesting constellation of the three currencies I am watching. Week three from this year completed a bullish divergence (blue line) which makes me very bullish on this pair.
You can see why, when you look at end of May 2010, when there was also a bullish divergence (purple line) and the impressive uptrend of 3000 pips EURUSD started then. I don't think that we see a rally that big this time, considering the fact that the preciding downtrend was not that fast this time (37 weeks as oposed to 27 weeks), but still I think EURUSD will reverse.
Although EMA is not confirming the trend yet, I will start looking for good entries. The MACD has crossed the 0-line signalling bullish which, together with the divergence is enough for me. Whenever EMA changes her mind too, I will start to pyramid.
PS: Don't mind the buy and the S/L you see on the screenshot, those are positions on the demo I needed to show someone. :)
WTI - CLJ2 (Neutral)
Please take note that I switched to the April contract since coming Friday the CLH2 contract will roll over.
The EMA is still bullish, but since the MACD is approaching the 0-line I am cautious and will not look for trades in crude this week.
The divergence we saw 2nd of October 2011 has probably played out, so I want to see MACD reject the 0-line before starting to look for longs or the EMA to turn downwards to look for shorts.
Natural Gas - NGH2 (Neutral)
I haven't changed the chart here yet, because the chart didn't want to load and I was a bit impatient. But for the analysis it shouldn't bother you too much.
The downtrend we were in since June 2011 is loosing steam when the support level from August 2009 was reached. This is clearly shown in the MACD returning to 0. Furthermore one could argue that there is a very long-term divergence in play taking the peak of MACD in March 2010 and the levels reached beginning of this year.
EMA on the other hand is still pointing down indicating a downtrend. Before I will be looking at entries again I will wait till price came back to EMA.
Corn - CH2 (Neutral)
EMA being horizontal and MACD returning to zero I am neutral on corn, although slightly bullish because of the divergence.
The MACD was significantly higher in November 2011 than in September of the same year. At the same time prices didn't go up as the MACD would have suggested. Although this is divergence, I don't like it.
First of all I would have been much better when the MACD had retraced close to 0 and secondly becuase prices didn't reach a lower low, but merely reached the same levels as in September 2010.
Soybean - SH2 (Neutral)
Very boring chart, EMA horizontal hence nutral.
Wheat - WH2 (Neutral)
Same as with Soybean, EMA neutral, but here the MACD is even returning to 0.
Gold (Neutral)
EMA only so slightly bullish and the MACD about to cross. So with a little bit of luck we can change the outlook to bullish next week. This week however no gold trades for me.
Silver (Neutral)
Same as for gold applies for silver as well. EMA slightly bullish and MACD bullish. When looking at the charts I think silver is stronger than gold however.
It has already a MACD above 0 and there is a bullish divergence in play. But one of the kind I don't like as much as explained in the analysis of corn.
No silver trades this week either, but ready to take action.
On Sundays I will start-off with the instruments I follow and what trades I am looking for. Whenever applicable I will also comment on any closed trades that week.
My system boils down to looking at the weekly charts for direction and then find the actual entries on the daily charts.
I follow the following instruments:
- AUDJPY
- USDJPY
- EURUSD
- WTI
- Natural Gas
- Corn
- Soybean
- Wheat
- Gold
- Silver
My biases for week 7:
AUDJPY -> looking for longs
EURUSD -> looking for longs
all the rest is neutral, meaning no trades.
EURUSD -> looking for longs
all the rest is neutral, meaning no trades.
USDJPY (Neutral/Bullish)
 |
| USDJPY - Weekly |
So I am getting bullish on the pair, but not fully convinced yet.
AUDJPY (Bullish)
 |
| AUDJPY - Weekly |
EURUSD (Bullish)
 |
| EURUSD - Weekly |
You can see why, when you look at end of May 2010, when there was also a bullish divergence (purple line) and the impressive uptrend of 3000 pips EURUSD started then. I don't think that we see a rally that big this time, considering the fact that the preciding downtrend was not that fast this time (37 weeks as oposed to 27 weeks), but still I think EURUSD will reverse.
Although EMA is not confirming the trend yet, I will start looking for good entries. The MACD has crossed the 0-line signalling bullish which, together with the divergence is enough for me. Whenever EMA changes her mind too, I will start to pyramid.
PS: Don't mind the buy and the S/L you see on the screenshot, those are positions on the demo I needed to show someone. :)
WTI - CLJ2 (Neutral)
 |
| WTI - CLJ2 - Weekly |
The EMA is still bullish, but since the MACD is approaching the 0-line I am cautious and will not look for trades in crude this week.
The divergence we saw 2nd of October 2011 has probably played out, so I want to see MACD reject the 0-line before starting to look for longs or the EMA to turn downwards to look for shorts.
Natural Gas - NGH2 (Neutral)
 |
| Natural Gas - NGH2 - Weekly |
The downtrend we were in since June 2011 is loosing steam when the support level from August 2009 was reached. This is clearly shown in the MACD returning to 0. Furthermore one could argue that there is a very long-term divergence in play taking the peak of MACD in March 2010 and the levels reached beginning of this year.
EMA on the other hand is still pointing down indicating a downtrend. Before I will be looking at entries again I will wait till price came back to EMA.
Corn - CH2 (Neutral)
 |
| Corn - CH2 - Weekly |
The MACD was significantly higher in November 2011 than in September of the same year. At the same time prices didn't go up as the MACD would have suggested. Although this is divergence, I don't like it.
First of all I would have been much better when the MACD had retraced close to 0 and secondly becuase prices didn't reach a lower low, but merely reached the same levels as in September 2010.
Soybean - SH2 (Neutral)
 |
| Soybean - SH2 - Weekly |
Wheat - WH2 (Neutral)
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| Wheat - WH2 - Weekly |
Gold (Neutral)
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| Gold - Weekly |
Silver (Neutral)
 |
| Silver - Weekly |
It has already a MACD above 0 and there is a bullish divergence in play. But one of the kind I don't like as much as explained in the analysis of corn.
No silver trades this week either, but ready to take action.
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