Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Week 7 - To trade or not to trade

In my outlook this Sunday I stated that I would watch the AUDJPY for longs.

One could say that the signal I have been waiting for just came. Still I decided to not to take it. Why?

AUDJPY - Daily
The EMA is indicating a nice steady uptrend and the price just broke through resistance at 83.75. This would call for a trade. Looking at the MACD and the stochastics in particular made me decide to pass. The MACD is not really supporting the move and is 'recovering' from a bearish divergence, and might even make tripple bearish divergence.

The stochastics just turned back to the overbought area and although currencies can stay oversold for quite a longtime and still go up, I rather wait for it to be in healthier regions.

A wise decision? Only time will tell.

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