Weekly update week 10

It has been an interesting week last week. With Big Ben testifying, what resulted in a sell-off in gold and other commodities.


I am not going to say that I foresaw such a big  drop in gold, but reaching the 1800 level was a potential resistance, as price already once before bounced of this level. So there was no need to be long gold last week.


So let us start with what is on the charts for the coming week.


I will talk about the following instruments:

• EURUSD
• AUDJPY
• USDJPY
• Gold 
• Silver
• WTI

EURUSD

EURUSD - weekly

Last week the EURUSD gave back all of its gains it accumulated the week before that and bounced of nicely from the 50% fibonacci retracement and hence continued its downtrend.

Also the EMA is confirming the downtrend, only MACD is not convinced yet.

When the downtrend is indeed continuing we have a price target of 1.1620, levels we haven't seen since 2003.

This target is based on the fact that very often when price retraces 50% it will then extend to the 1.618% fib level, which in our case is this bespoken 1.1640.

Before it reaches that point we probably have some months to go and break the following supports:

1.3120, 1.2860, the recent low @1.2620

Just as a remainder, as always, these levels are to be understood as zones and not the precise support to the pip.

To the upside we still have the 50% fib as resistance @1.3435, the 61.8% fib level @1.3626 and of course the 1.3500 area.

This brings us to the daily chart.

EURUSD - daily

This chart is actually confirming the downtrend, the EMA is pointing down and the MACD went through the 0-line into the negative area. Stochastics is reaching oversold, so a short-term upwards movement in EURUSD could bring us good opportunities to short.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY -  weekly

This week the JPY weakness continued, with the result that it took only three days to take the resistance of 87.20 out, of which I spoke last week.

Judged by the long lower wicks, the bears are trying all they can to pull the pair down, but the bulls are just to strong to let tat happen.

This week price might come down a little bit, as it is currently trying to take out the 87.80 ~ 88.00 level. But once that level is taken, the way is clear for the 89.00 and up.

USDJPY

USDJPY - weekly

Due to the JPY weakness mentioned above this pair had no real difficulties pushing to the top level of the resistance zone drawn on the chart @81.80.

As with AUDJPY bears tried to hold the pair back but in vain.

Next resistance on the weekly chart is at 83.20 and once USDJPY steers clear of 81.80 it will head for that one.

When 81.80 is to big a resistance, price will probably start to range a little bit between 81.30 and 81.80, or fall back to 80.25

Gold

In the introduction I already spoke about the sell-off in gold, but the damage should have been limited, because there was no real reason to be long gold at that moment.

Gold - weekly

At the moment there is not much to tell about the shiny metal. The EMA went flat and the MACD turned down, so the trend is neutral, slightly bearish.

Gold - daily

The daily chart is bearish with EMA and MACD down. Stochastics is reaching oversold.

I am not very inclined to trade gold at this point and would rather want to see gold come back to the EMA and decide by then whether gold is offering a good trading opportunity.

Silver

Silver - weekly

Silver tried to break through the trend line I talked about last week, but it was then caught in the sell-off and force back between the 33.80 ~ 34.80 levels so nicely drawn on my charts last week.

Technically the trend is still up though with MACD being green and the EMA very slightly pointing up. Not very convincing though.

Silver - daily

Sentiment on the daily is down where silver found resistance on the EMA. When the MACD rejects zero and price still to the EMA, I might want to go long silver, but I am not too sure yet considering the trend line that is still in the way.

I'll keep you posted on this one.

WTI - CLJ2

WTI - CLJ2 - weekly

The 1.10 level was a bridge too far last week and in the sell-off in commodities last week crude was not spared either.

Sentiment is still up though, as seen by green MACD and EMA pointing up. So we might be still willing to buy crude from the daily chart.

WTI - CLJ2 - daily

And indeed the daily chart might be offering a good buy. At the moment the EMA is holding as support. It is pointing up (a little) so that is a bullish sign. The MACD is red however, which will hold us from going long just now. When it however decided to reject the zero line our buy signal is there.


Resistance on the way up would be at: 108.50, 110.00, 111.00
To the downside we see following support levels: 105.00, 103.20, 102.20